With the presidential debates due to start Friday, Sept. 26, the attention of voters will be turned to their television screens for a chance to see U.S. Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain unfiltered and in action, says Dr. David Lanoue, a University of Alabama political scientist. For that reason, the debates can influence a close election.
"People watch the debates because it's the only chance people have to see the candidates side by side and do comparison shopping," says Lanoue, professor and chair of the political science department at UA. "As for whether they make a difference, they really do. It's not a huge difference. People think a debate can change the direction of a whole campaign by 10 or 20 points. That doesn't happen. It changes maybe about three to five points at the most extreme. But this is the third straight election where three to five points make all the difference."
Lanoue, an expert in presidential debates, recently published an article called "Debates are for Losers" with colleague Peter Schrott in the July 2008 edition of PS: Political Science and Politics. He points out that often presidential debates sometimes hang on the ability of candidates to show how presidential they are.
"Modern debates favor candidates who can clearly articulate their message, can put it in the kind of sound bite that can show up on television the next day, who can deliver the zingers properly," he says. "But mostly, candidates favored in debates are those who show a mastery of the issues, who can show strength of character, and those who can seem presidential – people can look at them and imagine them in the oval office during a crisis."
Lanoue points out debates can be won or lost in three different arenas. First, there's the debate itself, as people decide for themselves which candidate won. Then, debates get analyzed by the news media; sometimes after the news networks have found gaffes or pointed out physical tics of the candidates, they can change people's minds about who won or lost. The third and most recent phenomenon lies in what comedians and satirists make of the debates.
"What do the satirists do? What do Leno and Letterman say? What do Jon Stewart and Colbert do?" Lanoue says. "How is it picked up by 'Saturday Night Live'? Eight, 10 years ago, those were not the kind of opinion-driving phenomena they are today. But now they're really part of the popular culture, especially among young people. They will also help a lot of voters interpret who really won and lost."
Furthermore, for the first time, the vice presidential debate, scheduled for Thursday, Oct. 2, may influence the campaign.
"This is a really different year," he says. "Sarah Palin has come on the scene as really just this phenomenon, like nothing we've seen at the vice presidential level before. I think that makes the vice presidential debate a little more important this year, because, first of all, more people are going to watch it, and secondly, I think a lot of people are judging John McCain by the choice he made of Sarah Palin. So, it's especially incumbent on her to validate that choice by looking experienced and knowledgeable."
MULTIMEDIA
Today's presidential debates are vitally important to the campaign "because they’re the only chance people have to see the candidates side by side and do comparison shopping," says Dr. David Lanoue, professor and chair of the political science department at UA.
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