Sometimes one poll can't give you a complete picture of what's happening in a presidential election. But, an average of the polls could give you a bull's-eye, says Dr. Patrick Cotter, a University of Alabama political scientist. As the presidential race between U.S. Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama boils over, analysts may want to weigh as many polls as they can to find out how voters are leaning.
"Can you trust polls? Some you can throw away; some you can pay attention to," says Cotter, an expert on polling and professor of political science at UA. "It's not a bad idea to take an average. When we get close to the election, polls are really accurate. If you get the average, you can get quite a good prediction of what's going to happen in the election."
This year, Cotter says, two wild cards have emerged in the campaign. For one, the Obama campaign in the primaries and now in the general election has brought many new potential voters to the booths through organization and registration. States are reporting record rates of registration, Cotter says. All those new voters may influence turnout – are people considered less likely to vote in the past going to get to the polls and change the paradigm?
"The way in which pollsters determine who's going to vote is based on what's happened in the past," he says. "Are we in a different world now?"
The other issue remains how the candidacy of Obama, an African-American, will affect polling.
"Will voters tell you the truth?" Cotter asks. "Results from earlier elections have been mixed about whether or not there's a race factor."
Cotter also points out that today's pollsters are taking into consideration advanced technology, including reaching subjects on their cell phones or using machines to call and elicit responses. Also, with states now allowing mail-in or early voting, exit polls may not reflect the truth of voter sentiments. And, people are more reluctant to answer polling questions.
MULTIMEDIA
Dr. Patrick Cotter, a University of Alabama political scientist, examines the state of polling in today's political scene.
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